Tentative Schedule
| Lec. No. | Date | Topic and Readings | Reading Questions | Extra | Presenter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wed 9/1 | Introduction |
Slides | Yiling | |
| Mon 9/6 | Labor Day - Holiday | ||||
| 2 | Wed 9/8 | Information Theory, Decision
Making Under Uncertainty Chapter 2 (2.1-2.8) Elements of Information Theory, T.M. Cover and J.A. Thomas (2005) |
Slides, Notes | Yiling | |
| 3 | Mon 9/13 | Kelly Criterion Chapter 6 (6.1-6.3) and Chapter 16 (16.1-16.4) Elements of Information Theory, T.M. Cover and J.A. Thomas (2005) |
Yiling | ||
| 4 | Wed 9/15 | Game Theory Review Chapter 3, Chapter 5 (5.1). Multiagent Systems, Y. Shoham and K. Leyton-Brown (2009). |
Slides | Yiling | |
| 5 | Mon 9/20 | Game Theory Review Chapter 5 (5.2), Chapter 6 (p.141 -147, p. 156-166). Multiagent Systems, Y. Shoham and K. Leyton-Brown (2009). |
Slides | Yiling | |
| 6 | Wed 9/22 | Proper Scoring Rules Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation, T Gneiting and A Raftery, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2007. (You can skip sections 4 and 5.) Eliciting Properties of Probability Distributions, N. Lambert, D.M. Pennock and Y. Shoham, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2008. (You can skip section 6.) |
How do proper scoring rules relate to convex functions? | Selten'98, HB'71, Salvage'71, WM'68, McCarthy'56 | Yiling |
| 7 | Mon 9/27 | Peer Prediction - The Original Mechanism Eliciting Honest Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method, N. Miller, P. Resnick, and R. Zeckhauser, Management Science, 51(9): 1359-1373, 2005. |
Slides, SRE'08, JF'06 | Thomas Steinke and David Rezza Baqaee | |
| 8 | Wed 9/29 | Peer Prediction - Some Improvement Mechanisms for Making Crowds Truthful. R. Jurca and B. Faltings. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 34: 209-253, 2009. |
Slides,
JF'07,
JF'08, PRGJ'08 |
Sergiy Nesterko and Andrew Mao | |
| 9 | Mon 10/4 | Truthful Surveys Truthful Surveys, N. Lambert and Y. Shoham, Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, 2009 |
Slides, Notes, GRP'09, LS'09 DW'08 | Victor Shnayder and Mike Ruberry | |
| 10 | Wed 10/6 | Bayesian Truth Serum A Bayesian Truth Serum for Subjective Data, D. Prelec, Science, 306 (5695): 462-466, 2004. An Algorithm That Finds Truth Even If Most People Are Wrong, D. Prelec and H.S. Seung, 2010. |
Drazen Prelec | ||
| Mon 10/11 | Columbus Day - Holiday | ||||
| 11 | Wed 10/13 | Empirical Performance of Prediction Markets The Promise of Prediction Markets, K.J. Arrow et. al., Science, 320, p.877, May 16 2008. Prediction Markets, J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2), 2004. Prediction Without Markets, S. Goel, D.M. Reeves, D.J. Watts, and D.M. Pennock ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010. |
Slides, BFNR'01, CP'02, CFH'03, CWZ'08, OS'10 | Thomas Steinke and David Rezza Baqaee | |
| 12 | Mon 10/18 | Market Scoring Rules Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation, R. Hanson, Journal of Prediction Markets, 1(1):3-15, 2007. David Pennock's blog on how to implement market scoring rules as a market maker. |
Slides, Notes, Hanson'03, CP'07, OPRS'10 | Victor Shnayder and Mike Ruberry | |
| 13 | Wed 10/20 | Incentives in Prediction Markets Composition of Markets with Conflicting Incentives, S. Dimitrov and R. Sami, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010. |
Slides, CDHRPHFG'09, SCG'09, OS'10b, IGM'09, Ostrovsky'09 | Mikkel Plagborg-Moller and Alex Peysakhovich | |
| 14 | Mon 10/25 | Combinatorial Prediction Market Combinatorial Betting, Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, E. Nikolova, and D.M. Pennock ACM SIGecom Exchanges, Vol. 7, No. 1, December 2007. Pricing Combinatorial Markets for Tournaments, Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D.M. Pennock The 40th ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC), Victoria (BC), Canada, May 2008. |
Slides, CFLPW'08, GP'09, CFNP'07 | Rick Goldstein and John Lai | |
| 15 | Wed 10/27 | Online Learning Chapter 14, Online Algorithms: The State of the Art, Springer, 1998. |
Yiling | ||
| 16 | Mon 11/1 | Decision-Theoretic Perspective of Online
Learning A Decision-Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting, Y. Freund and R.E. Schapire, journal of computer and system sciences 55, 119-139, 1997. |
Slides, AWY'08, CFHHSW'97 | Sachin Gupta and Nitish Lakhanpal | |
| 17 | Wed 11/3 | Follow the Regularized Leader Efficient Algorithms for Online Decision Problems, A. Kalaia and S. Vempala, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71: 291 – 307, 2005. A Survey: The Convex Optimization Approach to Regret Minimization, E. Hazan, 2009. |
Slides, Kalai's Notes, Rahklin's lecture notes on online learning | Alice Gao and Sergiy Nesterko | |
| 18 | Mon 11/8 | Market & Learning A New Understanding of Prediction Markets Via No-Regret Learning, Y. Chen and J.W. Vaughan, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010. |
Slides | Wei Pan and Dylan Lake | |
| 19 | Wed 11/10 | Incentive-Compatible Machine
Learning Incentive Compatible Regression Learning, O. Dekel, F. Fischer, and A. D. Procaccia. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 76(8):759–777, 2010. |
A'08 | Ariel Procaccia and Felix Fischer | |
| 20 | Mon 11/15 | Darpa Network Challenge Time Critical Social Mobilization: The DARPA Network Challenge Winning Strategy, G. Pickard, I. Rahwan, W. Pan, M. Cebrian, R. Crane, A. Madan, and A. Pentland, 2010. |
Slides,CNN News, DARPA Project Report | Karim Atiyeh and Yinan Zhu | |
| 21 | Wed 11/17 | Crowdsourcing -1 Crowdsourcing and All-Pay Auctions, D. DiPalantino and Milan Vojnovic, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010. Active Learning and Crowd-Sourcing for Machine Translation, Ambati, V., Vogel, S. and Carbonell, J., Proceedings of LREC, 2010. |
Slides,AD'08, JP'10 | Pramod Thammaiah and Scott Brinker | |
| 22 | Mon 11/22 | Crowdsourcing -2 Boudreau and Lakhani, 2010. (Paper will be distributed by email.) Marginality and Problem Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search, L.B. Jeppesen and K. R. Lakhani, Organization Science (forthcoming) 2009. |
Karim Lakhani | ||
| Wed 11/24 | Thanksgiving Holiday | ||||
| 23 | Mon 11/29 | The Wealth of Data Toward Community Sensing, A. Krause, E. Horvitz, A. Kansal, and F. Zhao, International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks, 2008. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data, J. Ginsberg, M.H. Mohebbi, R.S. Patel, L. Brammer, M.S. Smolinski and L. Brilliant, Nature, 2009. |
HK'10 | Jerry Kung and Kevin Lee | |
| 24 | Wed 12/1 | Class Discussion |